OSCAR FEVER - 2006

In 2005, Martin Scorsese lost the best directing Oscar (yet again) to Clint Eastwood, who won his second directing Oscar for Million Dollar Baby – and that’s all you'll ever need to know about the Academy Awards. The incident was so devastating and so disturbing, that I almost swore off the Oscars forever – almost. I remain a big fan because for a true film aficionado who has little interest in spectator sports, the Academy Awards are the closest thing to the excitement of a major sporting event – the World Series of award ceremonies. And just like sports fanatics who can’t help rooting for their favourite team, even though they know the team will lose, I can’t help rooting for my favourite movies, even though I know they don’t stand a chance. But what the heck - I don't have anything else to do.

BEST PICTURE
Should Win: This is a really strong category, and I can’t remember a time in recent Oscar memory where I have no complaints about any of the nominees (I also can’t remember a time when I had seen all the nominated films before the ceremony). Having said that, there’s just no question that Crash is the best film out of the five nominees. It was released early in 2005 and it's a testament to the film’s remarkable quality and power that Oscar remembered it by the end of the year – something, which almost never happens. Sure we’ve seen this approach before, a series of characters and stories linked by a series of coincidences, but rarely have we seen it executed this well. A brilliant meditation on a very relevant topic, Crash is not only the best film out of all the nominees; it is the best film of 2005.

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain will win in this category. There might be an upset from Crash, but all arrows point to Brokeback Mountain, which swept most of the critics’ awards and is also the film with the most nominations. Not to mention that Brokeback Mountain is a haunting and compelling story of frustrated love whose emotional power cannot be denied.

Nixes: Match Point should have made it into the top five. It may be the most conventional film Woody Allen has ever made; but it is still a complete departure from his typical fair and one of the best examples of that genre from any year. Beautifully film, paced and acted, Match Point is laced with some very tense moments and capped by a powerful, thought provoking ending.

BEST ACTOR
Should Win: This is also a really strong category. The only one I haven’t seen is Terrence Howard in Hustle and Flow, but all the other nominees definitely deserve to be there and I would not be disappointed if any of them won – particularly Ledger who is the emotional power behind Brokeback Mountain and Joaquin Phoenix who commands the screen so masterfully in Walk the Line, that all other performances in the film pale in comparison. But Philip Seymour Hoffman is the man who deserves to win the most. Here, Hoffman so completely inhabits the character of Capote that no trace of the actor is ever seen on screen.

Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman. He has won most of the other awards in this category and there’s just no denying the brilliance of his performance, as Hoffman does Capote better than Capote himself.

Nixes: Jeff Daniels should have been nominated for his excellent portrayal of an intellectual snob of a father, who is extremely well read in literary classics, but absolutely clueless when it comes to dealing with his own family, in the offbeat and funny The Squid and the Whale. Daniel’s performance is near comic perfection as he makes an unpleasant character so funny, that you can't help but like him. Also overlooked is Nicholas Cage in everything he did, including Lords of War, which I haven't seen.

BEST ACTRESS:
Should Win: This category is not as strong as its male counterpart and the only one I haven’t seen is Judi Dench in Mrs. Henderson Presents. But I think Reese Witherspoon deserves the award for almost holding her own with Joaquin Phoenix. In all honesty, her performance dwarfs in comparison with his, but still, she should win for the fact that she wasn’t completely overshadowed by Phoenix; and also for the unbelievable fact that she did her own singing.

Will Win: Witherspoon will win because she swept most of the awards in this category and because she’s just so darn likeable.

Nixes: Laura Linney should have been nominated for her memorable portrayal of a mother struggling to hold onto her son’s respect in the midst of a divorce. She also deserves it for having an impressive resume of excellent work for which she was never formally recognized.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should Win: Having not seen A History of Violence, I have to go with Matt Dillon in Crash. Dillon does a great job of creating a complex character who is not as easy to dislike, or to dismiss, as one might think.

Will Win: George Clooney will win the award as a consolation prize for making Oscar history by receiving nominations in two other categories in the same year – but mainly because he’s so charming and so loved by the rest of Hollywood.

Nixes: Although I actually think his performance should be considered a lead one, had he been nominated, it probably would have been in the supporting category. Nevertheless, Jesse Eisenberg’s understated, deadpan performance in The Squid and the Whale is one of the main strengths of this little seen comic gem.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should Win: Michelle Williams deserves the win for her powerful, sad and near flawless performance in Brokeback Mountain. Williams is so good, she personifies the pain felt by every woman who has ever been in that situation.

Will Win: This is a difficult category to predict, but I think Michelle Williams will take it for the reason mentioned above and because the Academy will want to honour at least one of the actors in its favourite movie of the year. However, if not Williams, it will be Rachel Weisz for her work in The Constant Gardener.

BEST DIRECTOR
Should Win: Paul Haggis should win. Haggis managed to do something that many have attempted, but none have accomplished – he made the quintessential film about racism in America.

Will Win: Ang Lee will win. Not only does he do a remarkable job with Brokeback Mountain, he is clearly one of the best directors around who has an amazing list of films to his credit. Not to mention that he won the Directors’ Guild Award, which is almost a sure bet that he will win the Oscar.

Nixes: Woody Allen should have been nominated for Match Point. Allen deserves recognition for making one of the top five films of the year – a superbly crafted thriller with a shocking, unforgettable ending.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Munich should win because the screenplay does a brilliant job of mediating a powerful story that is complex, balanced, political, philosophical, contemporary, moral, meditative, relevant, and thoroughly compelling.

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain will win because…you know.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should Win: Come on…Crash – no question. One of the great things about the screenplay is how brilliantly it manipulates your expectations, creating enough genuine twists, turns and surprises to fill 10 screenplays.

Will Win: Crash, which has the best chance of beating Brokeback Mountain for best picture, will get this as a consolation prize – but mainly because it deserves the win in this category.